bookmark_borderSnap’s Niche but Growing Role

Snap isn’t hogging headlines like Meta or Apple, but it continues to innovate around augmented reality and youth-centric features. Their latest lens-based shopping experiences are bridging the gap between fun and function—letting users virtually try on clothes or accessories before purchasing.

A recent Adweek piece highlighted how Gen Z shoppers are turning to Snap for product discovery. That’s exactly the demographic many brands crave, and Snap’s ad platform makes it easier for them to reach that audience. It doesn’t command the scale of Instagram or TikTok, but Snap’s laser focus on AR sets it apart.

Financially, Snap’s been choppy, primarily due to inconsistent ad revenue growth and fierce competition. Still, the company’s daily active users keep ticking upward. For me, that’s a sign they’ve carved out a unique space in the social media landscape—something ephemeral, playful, and visually engaging that resonates with younger users.

I don’t expect Snap to become the next Meta. But I do think it’s poised to remain a strong niche player. If management continues refining its AR and e-commerce tools, Snap could see steadier revenue gains over the next few years. I’m holding on to my shares, viewing Snap as a smaller, riskier bet in my broader tech portfolio—one that could pay off nicely if AR commerce hits mainstream adoption.

bookmark_borderAtlassian in the AI Era

AI is making its way into every corner of tech, and Atlassian is no exception. They’ve begun rolling out features that harness machine learning to improve project management—suggesting task assignments, automating ticket creation, and forecasting project timelines. It’s all about letting teams work smarter, not harder.

A Forbes article recently spotlighted Atlassian’s AI-driven improvements. By analyzing historical data from Jira and Confluence, the system can identify patterns—like which tasks typically lead to delays or which team members excel in certain areas. For businesses, that level of insight can streamline collaboration on a massive scale.

What I appreciate is Atlassian’s cautious approach. They aren’t tossing in AI features just to impress investors; they’re focusing on practical additions that genuinely enhance the user experience. That’s important, because forced AI features can lead to user frustration and questionable ROI.

From an investment perspective, the question is whether Atlassian can keep pace with giants like Microsoft, which is integrating AI through GitHub Copilot and Azure. However, Atlassian’s dedicated focus on collaboration and project management gives it a strong niche. If they continue integrating AI thoughtfully, they could reinforce their competitive moat. Personally, I’m confident enough to keep holding and occasionally topping up my position.

bookmark_borderMeta’s Tough Year and Future Prospects

It’s been a rollercoaster year for Meta stock, no question. The metaverse vision is still burning cash, and user growth on Facebook has plateaued in certain markets. But I’m not throwing in the towel. As someone who’s watched this company adapt time and time again, I believe there’s another act waiting in the wings.

I found an interesting The Information article that dives into Meta’s Reality Labs spending. Yes, they’re hemorrhaging money, but the progress in VR/AR tech is notable. The Quest headsets are popular with early adopters, and enterprise solutions might unlock new revenue streams. Think remote training, VR workspaces, and immersive marketing experiences.

Regulatory hurdles remain. Meta’s approach to privacy and data handling has often drawn fire. But as they retool and pivot, there’s a chance they’ll address those concerns in a more fundamental way. The success of Reels on Instagram also shows they can still innovate and keep up with trends. Meanwhile, their advertising engine remains strong enough to fund these bets on the future.

I’m continuing to hold, albeit with eyes wide open. The stock might stay volatile for a while. But if you have the stomach for it, Meta could look like a bargain a few years down the road—especially if the metaverse concept starts showing real-world returns.

bookmark_borderAtlassian’s Collaboration Surge

Atlassian has become a staple for teams around the globe, but I feel it often flies under the radar compared to flashier tech giants. Their tools—Jira, Confluence, Trello—are ubiquitous in software development circles and increasingly popular in non-tech businesses. I’m convinced their growth story is still in its early chapters.

I caught a ZDNet interview with Atlassian’s co-CEOs discussing how remote work has changed the nature of collaboration. They emphasized that asynchronous communication is here to stay. Atlassian’s platforms are tailored for that environment, allowing teams to connect seamlessly, regardless of time zones.

Despite the broader market jitters, Atlassian’s subscription revenue has been robust. The transition from on-premises software to cloud-based solutions has been a tailwind. Yes, competition from Microsoft Teams, Slack (now under Salesforce), and others exists. But Atlassian focuses more on project and issue tracking than just chat. That specialized niche gives it a certain moat.

On the financial side, they’re investing heavily in R&D, which I consider prudent for long-term gains. They’re also acquiring complementary services that can slot into their ecosystem. As remote or hybrid work continues, I expect Atlassian to remain indispensable. I’m staying long, anticipating that more enterprises will standardize their workflows around Atlassian’s platform in the years to come.

bookmark_border Rebranding and the Metaverse

Facebook’s big rebrand to Meta has become the talk of the tech town. I’ve been following Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the “metaverse,” and while it sounds futuristic, it’s not entirely science fiction. As an investor, I see this pivot as a natural evolution for a company that has consistently bet on immersive social experiences—think Instagram Stories, VR headsets, and more.

A Wired article I read last week laid out some compelling reasons why Meta might actually pull this off. They’ve already got the hardware component with Oculus, and they’re working on VR/AR apps that could bridge social networking and mixed reality. The question, of course, is whether mainstream adoption will happen fast enough to justify the current spending spree.

Regulatory issues and privacy concerns haven’t gone away. But if Meta can build a new platform from the ground up that addresses these concerns, they might sidestep some of the scrutiny that plagued Facebook. The risk is that the metaverse vision proves too expensive, or remains too niche, draining resources and investor patience.

I’m holding my shares because I believe in the leadership’s ability to shift and adapt. It won’t be a smooth ride—Meta’s stock could see volatility if investors lose faith in the metaverse concept. But high risk can lead to high reward. If they crack it, Meta might anchor an entirely new digital ecosystem.

bookmark_borderSnap’s Growing Ecosystem

Snap Inc. has been quietly—and sometimes not so quietly—building an ecosystem that goes beyond just disappearing messages. Snap’s push into augmented reality is especially intriguing. They’re turning AR filters into a valuable e-commerce tool, letting users virtually try on products before buying.

The latest Bloomberg piece details how brands are leveraging Snap’s AR to market directly within the app. This is a win-win: Snap fosters user engagement and generates advertising revenue, while brands get innovative ways to showcase their products. Sure, competition from TikTok is fierce, but Snap’s approach feels more like a curated experience than a free-for-all feed.

Does Snap’s daily active user count rival Facebook’s? Not yet. But it doesn’t have to. Its user base skews younger and is highly engaged. Advertisers pay a premium to reach that audience, which is exactly why I’m still holding SNAP shares. The platform’s unique approach to AR is something I believe will pay off massively in the coming years.

I also see Snap as a potential acquisition target—though I suspect they’re aiming for independence. Their rapid feature rollouts, like Spotlight (a TikTok competitor), show they’re not afraid to evolve. If management continues to innovate while balancing user privacy and monetization, Snap could become an unexpected heavyweight in the social media space. As the holiday season approaches, I’m keen to see how AR-driven shopping campaigns play out.

bookmark_borderChecking in on the Cloud Boom

We’re a quarter into 2021, and cloud adoption keeps accelerating. Remote work has forced even the most traditional businesses to rely on online collaboration tools, which is a win for Atlassian, Amazon (via AWS), and others in the cloud services space. Atlassian’s project-management solutions are making waves: the more teams go digital, the more they need streamlined collaboration software.

I came across a solid TechCrunch article discussing Atlassian’s acquisitions that aim to enhance product offerings in enterprise collaboration. They’re positioned strongly to retain market share, especially as software development teams expand and new remote workflows become permanent.

AWS remains the undisputed leader in cloud infrastructure—further boosting Amazon’s overall valuation. It’s fascinating how AWS essentially underwrites Amazon’s other ventures. While e-commerce sometimes struggles with low-margin or logistical complexities, AWS’s robust revenue stream more than compensates. I see that synergy as a major reason to stay long on AMZN.

Now, some worry cloud growth might slow post-pandemic, but I doubt it. Once a company invests in cloud infrastructure, it rarely goes back. The cost savings, scalability, and global access remain too compelling. Atlassian’s Confluence and Jira, Microsoft’s Azure, Google Cloud, AWS—these are now essential for businesses of all sizes.

Short-term dips may appear, but for long-term investors like me, these cloud-focused tech giants are building an ecosystem that’s tough to dislodge. That’s why I keep adding on small pullbacks and letting my positions ride.

bookmark_borderEmbracing the Tech Rally

I’ve spent the start of this year reviewing how tech stocks have fared after the tumult of 2020. Unsurprisingly, many big names continue to thrive—especially companies like Facebook (still calling it that for now) and Amazon, which remain cornerstones of my portfolio. They both benefit from shifting consumer behavior: more online time means more ad revenue, more e-commerce, and more opportunities to innovate.

Recently read a piece on The Verge about how Amazon is expanding its logistics network even further. The broader market might be fluctuating, but Amazon’s willingness to invest in infrastructure suggests it’s looking far beyond immediate gains. It’s also a strong sign that the tech rally might still have legs, as investors reward growth in these companies.

As for Facebook, user growth continues steadily. Even with all the debates around privacy and regulation, the platform remains indispensable for advertisers. I’m keeping my eye on the rumored VR/AR devices they’re developing; it might redefine how we interact online. So while some folks are rotating into other sectors, I’m holding tight to these positions.

Sure, we have vaccine rollouts and “return to normal” conversations, but tech’s role in everyday life isn’t going backward. Remote work, online shopping, and digital entertainment are part of the new normal. In my eyes, that’s an ongoing catalyst for companies like Amazon and Facebook/Meta—which is why I’m still bullish on them going into 2021.

bookmark_borderThe Positive Beat

Beat reporting, also known as specialized reporting, is a genre of journalism that can be described as the craft of in-depth reporting on a particular issue, sector, organization or institution over time.

This month I’m taking a break from writing about tech to get meta. I want to write about writing.

My favorite content online is by those who have a beat. Writers with specialized knowledge on a subject. Writers with an expertise, not those summarizing a press release.

Throughout the years I’ve grown fond of M.G Siegler’s and John Gruber’s take on Apple. And Josh Constine’s take on Facebook.

There are two other commonalities about these writers that separate them from the pack. They have a distinct voice. I enjoy the way their writing sounds when I read it in my head. But perhaps more importantly, they all took a positive beat. M.G. and Gruber are known as being Apple Fanboys. Josh was able to see Facebook’s potential when many doubted them.

But, surprisingly, I find taking a positive beat rare. Even more of a bummer, M.G., Gruber and Josh are all spilling more ink on critical, negative beats. M.G. loves Amazon but hates Facebook and has grown more critical of Apple. Gruber is generally pro-Apple but detests Trump, Facebook, Guns and Google. Josh prefers to criticize Snap, and like the rest of the blogosphere, crucified Facebook over Cambridge Analytica.

After a newsletter where M.G. was bearish on the HomePod and MoviePass I wrote to him:

A lot of negativity in this one! HomePod is a flop, MoviePass won’t work out, etc.

Not that you always have to be a cheerleader but I think writing on things you are bullish about have always been your sweet spots. Back in the day you nailed the positives about Apple when the majority of your peers were pressed to write hit pieces.

I know you know this, but I think time will tell your take on the HomePod is wrong. Apple is playing the same strategy they’ve always played with devices. Go high-end, have good margins to start, don’t worry about market share. Marketshare comes with a superior product. I hope you write this down as claim chowder for yourself, if Apple shows a Watch-esque position with the voice-commanded speaker market, they pulled it off.

He replied:

I try not to think of things as negative vs. positive, I care far more about being proven right in the end! And yes, we’ll see how HomePod does — especially after the first price cut and launch of SiriKit at WWDC!

+1. Being right is more important than being positive. I’d never want to take an incorrect positive stance.

Haters Gonna Hate

Hating clouds your judgement. People are at their worse (and illogical) when they’re offended and outraged.

M.G. made his mark by making the Apple bears look like fools. While most were writing about “Peak Apple”, M.G. saved their claims as claim chowder. When their foolish predictions were proven incorrect, he call em out. Yet, here is M.G., three years ago, incorrectly claiming (by nearly 500mm users) that we reached Peak Facebook.

Gruber, Siegler and Constine all took bearish stances on Facebook the last couple of months. I decided to go against the grain and defend them. As Facebook’s latest earnings report shows, the media once again overreacted.

And there you have it, my negative take on negative takes. M.G. is right, stick to being correct first and foremost, but there is too much positive going on in this world to focus on the negative. Negative bias appears stronger than Positive bias. Those who hate tend to get it wrong.

As I write going forward, I want to concentrate on the following. Write about what I know. If I don’t have anything good to say, I won’t say it all. I’ll find something else to cover. Put your money where your mouth is. If I write positively about a company, I should own their stock. And finally, write using a voice. This last part, the most important, is also the toughest.

bookmark_borderSnap Back

Snap Rocket

Our work during 2017 is proof that we aren’t afraid to make big changes for the long-term success of our business

– CEO Evan Spiegel

As I’ve been preaching on this blog, buying $SNAP requires patience. Snap (via Evan) continues to plan and execute for the long term. In Q4, Evan shifted the main goal of establishing a self-serve ad model to increasing user growth. Evan planned to do this by a UI Redesign, a new Android app and modifying the feed. When Evan announced these changes I expected results to take time. Three months later, and Snap has its user growth mojo back.

User Growth

Wall Street loves user growth. Although Snapchat has continued to grow every quarter the rate of the growth slowed. This freaked Wall Street out, who assumed that trend would last forever. Snap released improvements to the Android App that resulted in less crashes. This led to a 20% user retention increase. This change reversed the trend and Snapchat had 5% user growth compared to 2.9% in Q3.

This is great news and much quicker than I anticipated. What will happen in Q1 2018? Two major things are at play here. On one hand, Snap has rolled out a significant UI redesign. This design will alienate some of the most loyal users in the short term. Like Facebook News Feed redesigns, Twitter expanding to 280 chars, etc before it. Snap runs the risk of slowing user growth in the short term. In the long term, the easier-to-use UI will help onboard new users.

But, Snap has begun to take a page out of Facebook’s playbook. Snap is working with the ecosystem around Snapchat to help user growth.

We have recently launched partnerships with wireless carriers in over a dozen markets to begin reducing cellular bandwidth costs for Snapchatters around the world. We have seen that when data is less expensive, more people are willing to use our data-intensive products. This is important because Snapchat can be more fun to use out in the world rather than at home on WiFi.

Snapchat’s biggest headwinds are smartphone adoption, cellular broadband speeds and cellular data plan pricing. There are many strategies Snap can use to ease these headwinds. Similar to Facebook’s “Free Internet” play in emerging markets, Snap’s first attempt is to subsidize data plans with the goal of acquiring users. In the future, Snap could help subsidize smartphone contracts or make a “Lite” version of Snapchat.

This strategy will appease Wall Street’s user growth desires but will take a long time to increase revenue. The question is, is this the best place to invest time and resources or is improving the app and self-serve monetization? Can Snap do all three like Facebook has been able to do?

Bottom Line

In 2017, Evan focused on self-serve ads. Evan successfully (painfully?) transitioned the company to 90% of ads purchased programmatically. In Q3, Evan announced a shift in goals to user growth and was able to immediately show results for that promise. Evan continues to deliver on his promises. This reminds me of when Facebook had exactly $1b in profits the year leading up to the IPO. Hitting that profit goal was Zuckerberg’s way of conveying to Wall Street that he had ultimate control of the company.

Going forward, it is important to keep in mind what Snap is focusing on. If Snap is focusing on User Growth in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 there could be a slowdown in ARPU growth. One quarter of a dip in the growth rate of a main metric is not a death sentence. Focus on the metric Snap is focused on.