Peak predictions are tempting. Peak Oil has been an on-going prediction since at least the 60s, yet here we are in 2019 and have yet to reach peak oil.
In tech, peak Apple has been everyone’s favorite (incorrect) prediction.
Facebook is the newest peak-predicting victim.
MG Siegler has been a fan of predicting Facebook’s demise. The first such prediction he made in 2015, but he’s made others, going as far as penning a post called “Peak Facebook” a year ago.
Here is his latest take, writing about “Instagram by Facebook” –
The first thing that jumps to mind: Facebook is dead. Long live Facebook!
This is pretty clearly a way to cheat death (eventually). Or, at the very least, to hedge against it. It’s a lot harder to have a narrative around the “decline of Facebook” when Instagram by Facebook and WhatsApp by Facebook are thriving. (Not to mention that it would seem to be an attempt to solidify the “they can’t be broken apart” narrative…)
But there is a very real downside risk here. As the article notes, many people don’t know that Instagram is owned by Facebook. If and when they now know, does that change their usage at all? Even I — obviously very aware who Instagram is owned by — find myself questioning if this will or should change my usage. I mean, it’s just a name change! But it’s also a clear signal of the way forward..
First, let’s look at the facts. Facebook added 25 million DAUs last quarter for a total of 1.587 billion daily users. That’s insane and obviously objectively not peak Facebook. The fine print shows that these numbers do not include WhatsApp or Instagram, this is the big blue app.
Since MG’s first peak prediction in 2015, Facebook has added a whopping 500 million DAUs! 50% growth from their 1 billion at the time in 2015. Amazing, and shows how foolish MG’s prediction was at the time.
MG is missing another detail with his latest critique. Facebook is not outright saying why they are changing Instagram and WhatsApp to “Instagram by Facebook” and “WhatsApp by Facebook”. The detractors like to accuse Zuckerberg of being vain. There is a rumor going around he’s “annoyed” that he isn’t getting credit for their success.
This seems wildly out of character for how Zuckerberg has acted in the public to date. If anything, Zuckerberg would love to be more under the radar than the intense scrutiny his company receives.
What is more likely is that this change is due to pressure from regulators, most likely European regulators. The regulators feel Facebook is tricking people by not being more upfront about owning these apps. Facebook is getting ahead of this critique by becoming more transparent about their ownership.
And this sums up Facebook’s current can’t-win situation. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.